000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC WED AUG 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 134.9W AT 07/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1160 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 16N88W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N85W TO 07N92W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 07N92W TO 08N99W TO 
11N108W TO 09N114W TO 09N120W TO 07N127W TO 10N130W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 80W...FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W 
AND 96W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DISCUSSION 
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS OR 
GREATER WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA AND BY EARLY 
SATURDAY...REMAINING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST OF 
THE AREA AS WELL. HURRICANE JULIO ASIDE...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS REACHING A PERSISTENT 15-20 KT THRESHOLD 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF 7 FT. THIS AREA LIES WITHIN A 
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEANIC 1027 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 36N140W AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE WESTWARD EXIT OF 
JULIO FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL 
DOMINATE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 25N ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
NEAR 25N116W. NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 
10 TO 15 FT AND SEAS MAINTAINING A 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.

$$
HUFFMAN