000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC WED AUG 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 133.2W AT 07/0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1265 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 
130W AND 135W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W/87W TO 
8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOME MOISTURE...THERE IS NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 5N91W TO 6N96W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 6N96W TO 11N105W THEN RESUMES W OF SURFACE TROUGH 
NEAR 11N108W TO 9N117W THEN RESUMES W OF THE SECOND SURFACE 
TROUGH NEAR 9N120W TO 11N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 8N W OF 137W. 
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 106W FROM 
10N TO 15N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 
16N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 118W/119W FROM 8N TO 14N WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DISCUSSION 
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. SEE 
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. HURRICANE JULIO WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF 
ISELLE AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE SAME AREA TRAVERSED BY ISELLE. 
JULIO WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA EXTENDING A 
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N133W TO 20N120W AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 120W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH 32N122W TO 29N125W. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR 
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS N OF 20N W OF 115W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND 
OVER MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
28N107W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM 
ALONG COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 28N. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE AND E OF 
100W.  

$$
PAW