000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062059
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 131.8W AT 06/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1350 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 9N84W 7N91W TO 8N96W. 
ITCZ FROM 8N96W TO 11N103W THEN RESUMES W OF SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 
11N106W TO 9N116W THEN RESUMES W OF SECOND SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 
9N118W TO 11N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF MONSOON TROUGH TO 3N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 
6N120W TO 4N124W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N104W TO 9N105W 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
117W/118W FROM 7N TO 13N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DISCUSSION 
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WHILE 
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT REMAIN 16N TO 25N W OF 137W. 
OTHERWISE...HURRICANE JULIO WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF ISELLE AND 
IMPACT MUCH OF THE SAME AREA TRAVERSED BY ISELLE. JULIO WILL 
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 25N141W COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N121W TO 28N126W. MOSTLY DRY AIR 
AND STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING FOR 
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 20N W OF 115W. A SECOND UPPER 
TROUGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG 
THE COAST NEAR 27N109W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 
30 NM ALONG COAST OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 28N. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1011 MB LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO THE 
REGION NEAR 25N108W ALONG 23N108W TO 19N107W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 
111W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 27N109W. 

$$
PAW