000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 130.5W AT 06/1500 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1430 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 08N93W TO 
12N102W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W TO 07N108W TO 07N111W. 
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N111W TO 
08N116W TO 06N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 
97W AND 99W...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W...AND FROM 
06N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE TROPICAL EAST 
PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES 
ABOVE. WHILE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE HAS MOVED WEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...IMPACTS OF SEAS 8 TO 11 FT REMAIN 
GENERALLY FROM 16N TO 24N W OF 138W. OTHERWISE...HURRICANE JULIO 
WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF ISELLE AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE SAME AREA 
TRAVERSED BY ISELLE. JULIO WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
35N142W AND MISS CATCHING A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NEAR 38N119W SW TO A BASE NEAR 
29N126W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W.

EAST OF 110W...EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 29N108W. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 12N103W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE OFFICIAL GRIDDED FORECAST INDICATES 
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN