000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
HURRICANE JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 129.0W AT 06/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1120 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING 
WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 07N87W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N103W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N103W TO 08N110W TO 10N120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 
80W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W...AND FROM 12N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W.
       
...DISCUSSION...                                         
HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE TROPICAL EAST 
PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES 
ABOVE. WHILE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE HAS MOVED WEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...IMPACTS OF WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND 12 FT 
SEAS OR GREATER STILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 139W. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS 
RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT REMAIN GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 14N W OF 
136W. OTHERWISE...HURRICANE JULIO WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF ISELLE 
AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE SAME AREA TRAVERSED BY ISELLE. JULIO WILL 
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N140W AND MISS CATCHING A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NEAR 
37N120W SW TO A BASE NEAR 26N129W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDING FOR 
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W.

EAST OF 110W...EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 28N108W. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 13N103W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE OFFICIAL GRIDDED FORECAST 
INDICATES BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH 
FRIDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN