000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 127.5W AT 06/0300 
UTC OR ABOUT 1120 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
MOVING W-NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 126W AND 
128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W. 
JULIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE W-NW AND BECOME 
A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 6N84W 8N93W TO 1009 
MB LOW NEAR 12N102W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N106W TO 12N119W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF LINE FROM 13N100W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 16N97W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA E OF 80W. 
       
...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES FOR DETAILS. 

HURRICANE ISELLE IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 
16.6N140.9W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N W OF 115W 
WITH FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A MOIST 
ENVIRONMENT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN WHICH JULIO 
IS EMBEDDED. TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS A 1009 MB LOW 
NEAR 11N102W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND THE ITCZ.  NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THIS 
LOW.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N125W TO 30N129W. A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 26N109W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARD THE SW TO 20N123W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
UPPER RIDGE AND IS IMPACTING JULIO. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 14N103W ACROSS MEXICO AND TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
20N97W WITH UPPER DIFFLUNCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE 
1009 MB LOW. 

$$
PAW