000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052159 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ISELLE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 140.5W AT 05/2100 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. THIS IS THE FIRST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HNLTCMCP3/WTPA33 PHNL FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 126.0W AT 05/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1050 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. JULIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N100W IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W- NW NEAR 9 TO 13 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 6N81W TO 1007 MB LOW NEAR 12N100W 7N105W TO 7N110W. ITCZ FROM 7N110W TO 12N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROF FROM 91W TO 93W...N OF 12N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. ...DISCUSSION... HURRICANE ISELLE AND TROPICAL STORM JULIO ARE THE TWO BIG FEATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TODAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW AREA N OF 22N W OF 115W. FAIRLY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA. A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ISELLE AND JULIO. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE N PART OF THE FORECAST REGION...MAINLY N OF 22N. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE JUST SW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REACHES THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 35N124W TO NEAR 28N136W. A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 26N108W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE SW N OF JULIO AND TO THE E OF ISELLE NEAR 18N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ARE IMPACTING JULIO. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N100W ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 20N97W WITH UPPER DIFFLUNCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE 1007 MB LOW. $$ PAW