000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC MON AUG 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE ISELLE CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 138.6W AT 05/0900 UTC 
MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 955 MB. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OF ISELLE. 
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND MODEST FORWARD SPEED OF ISELLE...SEAS 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 32 FT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ISELLE TO 
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA. ISELLE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W BY 00 UTC WEDNESDAY. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

TROPICAL STORM JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 123.7W AT 05/0900 
UTC OR ABOUT 965 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
MOVING WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 
NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. JULIO IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 
JULIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.  PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
        
A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 10N98W...EMBEDDED ON THE MONSOON 
TROUGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W SINCE AROUND 21 
UTC.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
10 TO 15 MPH. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 
HOURS IS 30 PERCENT...MEDIUM.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N98W 
1007 MB TO 07N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W...AND 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.  
        
...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE ISELLE AND TROPICAL STORM JULIO ARE THE TWO BIG 
FEATURES THIS EVENING.  SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

A MODERATE 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 34N143W... 
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.  THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 
EQUATORWARD SIDE IS PRODUCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE 
TRADEWINDS.
 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 100W FOR JUST 
A FEW MORE HOURS.  AFTER THESE SUBSIDE...NO NEW LONG-PERIOD 
SWELL EVENT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GRIDDED WINDS ARE A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...00Z GFS...AND 
THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...ALONG WITH THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ADVISORY.  THE GRIDDED WAVEHEIGHTS ARE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 
AND THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...BOOSTED 1 TO 2 FT TO HELP ACCOUNT 
FOR THE UNDER-PREDICTION OF THE WINDS OF ISELLE AND JULIO IN THE 
GLOBAL MODEL.

$$ 
LANDSEA