000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE ISELLE CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 135.6W AT 04/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1130 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. ISELLE IS A 
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND 
SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 
KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
CENTER OF ISELLE. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND MODEST FORWARD 
SPEED OF ISELLE...SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 IN THE NORTH 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST 
CALLS FOR ISELLE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH TUE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA. ISELLE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W TUE NIGHT 
INTO EARLY WED. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED AND RENAMED TROPICAL 
STORM JULIO. T.S. JULIO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 118.4W...OR ABOUT 
750 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MOVEMENT IS W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM 
IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. T.S. JULIO IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY FURTHER TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE TUE AS IT MOVES 
WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
                           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N92W 
1011 MB TO 10N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY 
N OF 22N AND W OF 120W...PROVIDING EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO 
HURRICANE ISELLE. SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES 
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE 
ISELLE TO 25N...THEN LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS N OF 25N. SEAS WERE 
UP TO 8 FT AS FAR AS 480 NM N OF THE CENTER OF ISELLE...WELL 
OUTSIDE THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS...LIKELY DUE TO SHORT PERIOD 
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE HURRICANE. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS 
PERSIST N OF 20N W OF 115W IN THE AREA OF THE RIDGE BUT GIVEN 
THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW THIS LITTLE OF THIS DRY AIR IS MIXING 
INTO THE ISELLE WHICH REMAINS IN A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N115W TO 20N120W...TO THE NW OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N112W. UPPER DIVERGENCE 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE 
NEWLY FORMED T.D. TEN-E. 

FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N90W. ALONG 
WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
 
LONG PERIOD SWLY SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL 
CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 110W...BUILDING SEAS 
TO AROUND 9 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS BUT MAINLY S OF 
THE EQUATOR. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED AS FAR N AS 05N BETWEEN 
90W AND 100W THROUGH TODAY INTO TUE.  
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN