000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ISELLE CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 134.8W AT 04/0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1180 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. ISELLE IS A 
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND 
SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 
KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
CENTER OF ISELLE. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS BUT MODEST FORWARD 
SPEED OF ISELLE...SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 IN THE NORTH 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST 
CALLS FOR ISELLE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH TUE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA. ISELLE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W TUE NIGHT 
INTO EARLY WED. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS FORMED NEAR 13.5N 116.9W...OR 
ABOUT 690 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MOVEMENT IS W OR 270 DEG AT 
9 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
240 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. T.D. TEN-E IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN 
INTENSIFY FURTHER TO HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE WED AS IT MOVES WEST 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
                           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 09N90W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N93W TO 06N100W TO 12N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF 1009 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ALONG ROUGHLY 
20N...PROVIDING EASTERLY STEERING TO HURRICANE ISELLE. 
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY 
INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE ISELLE TO 25N...THEN 
LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS N OF 25N. SEAS WERE UP TO 8 FT AS FAR AS 
480 NM N OF THE CENTER OF ISELLE...WELL OUTSIDE THE AREA OF 
STRONG WINDS...LIKELY DUE TO SHORT PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM 
THE HURRICANE. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST N OF 20N W OF 115W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N115W TO 20N120W...TO THE NW OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N112W. UPPER DIVERGENCE 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE 
NEWLY FORMED T.D. TEN-E. 

FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N90W...TO THE 
NORTH OF A PERSISTENT 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 08N93W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS 
INDICATED FRESH TO ISOLATED STRONG SW WINDS CONVERGING INTO THIS 
LOW BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKEN FOR THE TIME BEING. 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THIS AREA SINCE YESTERDAY WITH 
THE AID OF THE UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA.
 
LONG PERIOD SWLY SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL 
CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 110W...BUILDING SEAS 
TO AROUND 9 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS BUT MAINLY S OF 
THE EQUATOR. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED AS FAR N AS 10N-11N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W BY TUE.  
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN