000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE IS NEAR 15.3N 131.8W AT 03/0900 
UTC...APPROXIMATELY 2200 NM SE OF HILO HAWAII. ISELLE IS MOVING 
WEST...OR 275 DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
ARE 95 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 115 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF ISELLE. 
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS BUT MODEST FORWARD SPEED OF ISELLE...SEAS 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
STORM. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED 
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. 

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N114.5W. A 05 UTC ASCAT 
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 270 
NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. EASTERLY SHEAR IS INFLUENCING THE 
LOW...AND THE CENTER IS OBSERVED ON THE SE END OF A CLUSTER OF 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND 210 NM TO THE NW OF THE CENTER. THIS 
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CHANCE OF 
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS IS HIGH. SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 TO 13 FT...HIGHER IF 
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN 200 NM 
OF THE CENTER OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 12 KT.
                           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO 1008 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 14N114.5W TO 10N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
E OF 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W CONTINUES 
IN LARGE PART TO UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED N OF PANAMA. SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO 
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS WEAK HOWEVER.

AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 30N115W TO 17N123W...TO THE NW OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N115W. UPPER DIVERGENCE 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES NEAR 14N114.5W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N140W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 125W TO THE NORTH OF ISELLE. 
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST N OF 20N W OF 120W. 

AN AREA OF SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR TO ROUGHLY 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W TONIGHT...BEFORE 
DECAYING BELOW 8 FT MONDAY. 
         
EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM SUNRISE 
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN