000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE IS NEAR 15.2N 131.0W AT 03/0300 
UTC. ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285 DEGREES...8 
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 115 
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 
16N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG FROM 13N TO 
16N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM 
ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER MIATCPEP4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE 
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCMEP4. 

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N114W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 
116W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.  
                           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH 10N80W TO 09N90W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
07N97W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N114W TO 15N118W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 
89W AND 95W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N135W. 
A RIDGE IS ALONG 25N128W...THROUGH THE CENTER...BEYOND 21N140W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N120W TO 22N1120W TO 18N130W TO 
16N133W BEYOND 10N140W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH AND 
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 26N NORTHWARD 
FROM 120W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 30N116W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 110W AND 
121W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 120W EASTWARD.
 
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA 
AND NOW IS NEAR 12N144W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT 
EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND THE RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH 
STILL IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
FROM 14N TO 16N TO THE WEST OF 138W AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 
FEET. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ACROSS 
THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 22N TO THE 
WEST OF 130W...AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE.
         
EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM SUNRISE 
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET.
 
$$ 
MT