000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE IS NEAR 15.1N 130.1W AT 02/2100 
UTC. ISELLE IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES...8 KNOTS. THE  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 105 KNOTS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST CALLS FOR ISELLE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH 
TUESDAY. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED 
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. 

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N114W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 
116W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE 
DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD 9 KNOTS.  
                           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH 09N80W TO 09N85W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
07N97W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N114W TO 11N118W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 09N80W...FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 
82W AND 88W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 
88W AND 108W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N135W. 
A RIDGE IS ALONG 25N128W...THROUGH THE CENTER...BEYOND 21N140W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N120W TO 22N1120W TO 18N130W TO 
16N133W BEYOND 10N140W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH AND 
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 26N NORTHWARD 
FROM 120W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 28N116W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 110W AND 
121W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W...AND FROM 
30N NORTHWARD FROM 120W EASTWARD.
 
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA 
AND NOW IS NEAR 11N143W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT 
EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND THE RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH 
STILL IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
FROM 10N TO 18NTO THE WEST OF 134W AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 
FEET. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ACROSS 
THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY FROM 11N TO 21N TO THE 
WEST OF 130W...AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE.
         
EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM SUNRISE 
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET.
 
$$ 
MT