000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ISELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 128.4W AT 02/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 1150 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING 
W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRES NEAR 
12N113W 1010 MB...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONDITION REMAIN 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES 
TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 9 KT. 
                           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 07N95W TO 13N110W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W 1010 MB TO 11N120W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
13N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 
100W. STRONG SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N 
140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 125W. BROAD AND 
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGHING IS NOTED BETWEEN 120W AND 125W N OF 
17N...WITH ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N113W. 

FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...WITH A TROUGH REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 08N85W. 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
PROLIFIC CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF PANAMA. 
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES IS FORMING IN THIS AREA SW OF COSTA 
RICA...WHICH WILL ENHANCE GAP WIND FLOW SLIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA IS WEAK ENOUGH 
THAT TRADE WINDS FLOW IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR GAP WINDS TO BE 
MUCH OVER 20 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS.
         
FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NIGHT AND SAT 
WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN