000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A CLUSTER A MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THE WAVE IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 11N. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 11N TO 17N. A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N118W. CONVERGENT NE TO E WINDS INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE CREATING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W 1010 MB TO LOW NEAR 11N118W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRES ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N123W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0500 UTC INDICATED HERNAN IS STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N120W TO 17N125W. THE LAST ACTIVE CONVECTION ENDED SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND WAS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH WITH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONVECTION AROUND THE 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED SOUTHERLY WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH...INITIATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N130W. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THIS LOW IN THE PAST SIX HOURS...ALTHOUGH A 0630 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST OF 140W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. $$ CHRISTENSEN