000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262133 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 108.3W AT 26/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 460 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 137.9W AT 26/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1100 NM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VISIBLE GOES-W SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 14.5N128W. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE EAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE TO THE NW OF THE LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES FROM 20N135W TO 14N138W. AS THE LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD...IT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE IMPACTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR THAT AWAITS IT TO THE NW. BEFORE THAT OCCURS HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNDAY. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N119W TO 17N119W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W AND IS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 12N104W THEN RESUMES 13N111W TO 09N119W TO 14N128W TO 12N135W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SHORTWAVE NEAR 34N129W TO A BASE NEAR 14N139W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGHING GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 32N123W. TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGHING...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 18N105W TO THE NE OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. THIS RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF HERNAN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WHEN THEREAFTER IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MOVEMENT ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND A STRONGER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE EARLY SUNDAY TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT AS WELL. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 136W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH GENEVIEVE. $$ HUFFMAN