000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220048
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM BELIZE TO 08N90W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT 
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF 
THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N117W TO 10N118W MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 112W-120W. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N137W TO 10N137W. LOW PRES ALONG 
THE WAVE NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTION CONFINED 
TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 138W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO LOW 
PRES 09N115W TO 11N125W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 
112W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 128W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 26N135W TO 
27N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 23N135W THROUGH 25N130W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
85 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A 1014 MB 
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N131W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N134W THEN A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE 
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR 
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE. 

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W 
OF 130W WILL SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA 
BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS 
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS UP TO 20 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF 89W. 
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY 
WED AFTERNOON. 

$$
COBB