000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 6N118W MOVING W 15 TO 20 
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS APPROACHING A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W TO 
122W. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N136W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
9N136W TO 7N136W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
SURFACE. THIS IS LIMITING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W TO 139W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W TO 6N92W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N92W 6N101W 9N107W TO 8N111W THEN 
RESUMES NEAR 8N120W TO 9N135W THEN RESUMES 9N137W TO BEYOND 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N E OF 
80W AND FROM 3N TO 6N E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N80W TO 4N92W AND FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
EAST OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING THE 
CONVECTION FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W TO OVER 
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 14N101W 
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 
16N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. THIS UPPER LOW 
GENERATED AN OUTFLOW FLOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. A 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO 
PRODUCED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW WEAKENING 
AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. 
 
WEST OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W WITH 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N125W THROUGH THE UPPER 
LOW TO BEYOND 31N140W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB 
LOW NEAR 31N131W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 
28N135W. THIS IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT 
EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE AREA AND A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N124W TO 23N115W. A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE ANCHORED WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 110W. THIS DISRUPTED SURFACE 
RIDGE IS GIVING AREA S OF THE RIDGE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH 
FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 136W. THE 
LOW/FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE TUE REBUILDING THE 
SURFACE RIDGE TO GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA 
N OF 28N EARLY WED. 

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP 
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WED. 

$$
PAW