000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER ALONG 111W WAS RELOCATED TO THE WEST AND 
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 16N115W TO 08N117W MOVING W AT AN 
ESTIMATED 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N. THE WAVE 
HAS MOVED AHEAD OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 09N111W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WAS SITUATED IN 
AN AREA OF LIFT ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER 
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 118W/119W FROM 10N TO 23N. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN 
CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH LATE 
TUE.
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N132W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 
11N133W TO 07N133W MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO SUBSIDENT 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N147W. AS A RESULT THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN EARLIER 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 FT IN THE WAKE OF  
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 130W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 06N95W. ITCZ FROM 06N95W TO 
10N110W TO 07N120W TO 10N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF 
1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N111W...AND FROM 
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN EXTENSIVE AND ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N131W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH WHICH COVERED 
THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W. THIS CIRCULATION WAS PROVIDING 
SUPPORT TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N127W TO 
25N136W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WEAK TRADE 
WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N99.5W IS ENHANCING A 
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE 
WEAKENED AS THEY MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM RESIDUAL GAP WIND 
DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER OVERNIGHT. 
 
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES 
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AT TIMES.

$$
COBB