000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N111W TO 09N111W MOVING W 10 TO 
15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ 
WHERE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 10N110W. ADDITIONAL 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED BETWEEN 150 AND 240 NM 
IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS WAS WITHIN AN AREA OF LIFT 
ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 
117W N OF 10N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH 
TUE.
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N131W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
11N132W TO 08N132W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO 
SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N145W. AS A RESULT 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN 
EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 7 FT ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. SEAS TO 
8 FT ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH 
ADDED INFLUENCE OF MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W. ITCZ FROM 07N95W TO 
10N110W TO 06N120W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97.5W. 
...AND FROM 05N TO 07N OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN EXTENSIVE AND ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N131W...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 30N128W TO 27N136W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY 
WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N98W IS ENHANCING A LARGE 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINTAINED IN PART 
TO RESIDUAL GAP WIND DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
 
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES 
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AT TIMES.

$$
COBB