000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N11W TO 7N107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE 
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH S OF 13N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT 
LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.
 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N129W 
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT THERE IS NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TRADE 
WINDS WITH FRESH BREEZE GENERATING SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH 9 FT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES 140W MON NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 8N85W 7N94W TO 
8N101W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N107W THEN 
RESUMES NEAR 9N110W TO 11N127W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N131W TO 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 
95W AND 103W...FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W...FROM 10N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W 
AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 88W. 
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIOUSLY 
ANALYZED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N105W IS NOT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW. 
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 
15N94W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ E OF 103W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN INHIBITING 
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FURTHER 
W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W THROUGH AN UPPER 
CYCLONE NEAR 31N133W TO BEYOND 32N140W WITH A LARGE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 118W.  

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB LOW NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA THROUGH 31N140W 23N120W AND REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS 
DUE TO THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING DESCRIBED ABOVE AND IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N125W. MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. 

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES 
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ON SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE EQUATOR TODAY AND 
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST EARLY TUE AND 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY WED...BUT 
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
PAW