000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N109W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W 
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS 
IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N126W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N127W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN 
THIS AREA SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT 
FOR FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW 
LATITUDES S OF 17N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL 
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 9 
FT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N105W 
1009 MB. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N126W 1010 
MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 
90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 09N105W.
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
   
ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. OIL TANKER SHIP BRITISH VENTURE CALL 
SIGN 2GYL6 REPORTED 30 KT NW WINDS AND 1009 MB PRESSURE AT 0100 
UTC NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS 
WIDESPREAD CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE 
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF 
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W. 

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES 
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL