000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N108W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W 
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN 
CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N125W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N125W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN 
THIS AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR FEW 
MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW 
LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL 
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT 
AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N101W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N105W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N108W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N125W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 09N105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 129W.
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
   
ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS WIDESPREAD 
CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE 
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF 
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W. 

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL