000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191458 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1300 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N105W TO 09N106W MOVING 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN AND UPPER RIDGE REACHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N108W...AND AN UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N118W TO 14N116W. ASSOCIATED LIFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN ENHANCING AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...BUT THIS HAS LARGELY PULSED DOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST IN THE LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N124W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N124W TO 08N124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THIS AREA...BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGH 116W AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 15N133W. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR A FEW MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W ON MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTERACT WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1010 MB TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W AND 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 07 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS N OF A TROUGH ALONG 138W FROM 16N TO 18N IN THE WAKE OF FORMER T.S. WALI...NOW A WEAK REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W HAS MIGRATED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 110W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA...WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNINGS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA. STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. ...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN $$ CHRISTENSEN