000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 15N103W TO 10N104W MOVING NEAR 
20 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF AXIS BETWEEN 10N AND 13N.  

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N122W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW 
NEAR 11N122W TO 9N122W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. 
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE 
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS 
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W ALONG 10N87W 8N93W 9N106W TO 
10N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 12N121W THEN 
RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N125W 8N132W TO 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 
91W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 136W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND 
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. 
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
   
REMNANT LOW OF WALI IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS WEST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 16N145W AND IS PRODUCING FRESH BREEZE OVER 
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 17N TO 20N W 
OF 138W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.    
                                           
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N140W TO 20N120W. THE 
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING FRESH 
BREEZE IN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO MODERATE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH ACCOMPANYING 
SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT EARLY SUN W OF 130W THEN SHIFT 
WESTWARD THROUGH TUE. 

A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL PULSE TONIGHT AND SAT 
NIGHT WITH WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE AND COULD BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT. 
THESE PULSES WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS IN THE FRESH BREEZE RANGE. 

A LONG-PERIOD SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR LATE 
SUN WITH SWELLS IN THE 16 TO 19 SEC RANGE. THIS SWELL TRAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUE AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. 

$$ 
PAW