000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 05N102W TO 15N101W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
S OF 12N. THE WAVE CAN BE DIAGNOSED FROM THE GFS-BASED SUNY-
ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.  NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE 
WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.  NO 
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N121W TO 16N121W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS SHOWING UP 
DISTINCTLY IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE 
GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS...AND AT THE 
SURFACE WITH THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.  HOWEVER...NO 
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.  NO AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 09N83W TO 10N122W. ITCZ IS 
LOCATED FROM 08N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH E OF 86W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W 
AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXITS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH FROM 95W TO 105W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W TO 114W. 
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
   
REMNANT LOW WALI IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS WEST OF OUR WESTERN 
BORDER NEAR 16.4N 144.8W. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF ONLY FRESH 
BREEZE BUT SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER FROM 
18N TO 20 N.  THESE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD 
WITH THE CYCLONE OUT OF OUR AREA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.     
                                           
A MODERATE 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 27N132W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 19N112W.  THE RESULTING MODEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  
A 1548Z SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WINDS OF 
20-25 KT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE 
SMALL AREA AND SHORT DURATION...THESE ARE ONLY PRODUCING 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FT.  WHILE IT MAY AGAIN 
BRIEFLY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY 
MORNING MAXIMUM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY 
TO STAY AT THIS THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS ARE NOT 
LIKELY TO REACH 8 FT AT ANY TIME.  THUS THIS EVENT IS NOT 
INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR 
AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
     
GRIDDED WIND FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 
...12Z ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.  GRIDDED 
WAVE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH FROM 
GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.

$$ 
LANDSEA