000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC FRI JUL 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N100W TO 15N100W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXITS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W TO 
103W. THE WAVE CAN BE DIAGNOSED FROM THE GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY 
TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.  NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR 
OCEAN WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.  NO AMPLIFICATION OF 
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES 
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N119W TO 16N118W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS.  THE WAVE 
IS SHOWING UP DISTINCTLY IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY...THE GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH 
DIAGNOSTICS...AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER 
DATA.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.  NO AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 
ABOUT 10 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N122W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N122W TO 08N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W 
AND 112W.  
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
   
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WALI IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS WEST OF OUR 
WESTERN BORDER NEAR 16.0N 144.0W. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 
ONLY FRESH BREEZE BUT SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE ALONG OUR WESTERN 
BORDER FROM 14N TO 19N.  THESE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD MOVE 
WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE OUT OF OUR AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.     
                                           
A MODERATE 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 27N137W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 25N114W.  THE RESULTING MODEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  
A 1548Z SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WINDS OF 
20-25 KT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE 
SMALL AREA AND SHORT DURATION...THESE ARE ONLY PRODUCING 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FT.  WHILE IT MAY AGAIN 
BRIEFLY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY 
MORNING MAXIMUM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY 
TO STAY AT THIS THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS ARE NOT 
LIKELY TO REACH 8 FT AT ANY TIME.  THUS THIS EVENT IS NOT 
INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR 
AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
     
GRIDDED WIND FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 
...12Z ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.  GRIDDED 
WAVE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH FROM 
GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.

$$ 
LANDSEA