000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC FRI JUL 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 17N94W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  THE WAVE IS 
SOMEWHAT DISTINGUISHABLE IN THE GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL 
TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.  NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N117W TO 15N116W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM E OF AXIS N OF 12N.  THE WAVE IS SHOWING 
UP DISTINCTLY IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE 
GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS...AND AT THE 
SURFACE WITH THE EARLIER 1656Z SCATTEROMETER DATA.  HOWEVER...NO 
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 07N100W TO 11N126W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 11N125W TO 13N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W 
AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. 
      
...DISCUSSION...                                                
   
TROPICAL STORM WALI IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS JUST WEST OF OUR 
WESTERN BORDER NEAR 13.7N 141.4W. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 
STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALES AS WELL AS SEAS 8 TO 11 FT ALONG OUR 
WESTERN BORDER FROM 12N TO 19N.  THESE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW OUT OF OUR AREA IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS.                                                           

A QUITE PERSISTENT AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERNMOST END OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS MAY HAVE BEEN 
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...REACHING TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. 
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH FILLS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 24N130W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N112W.  THE RESULTING WEAK 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AT 
32N130W.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION NOR ANY HIGH WINDS OR SEAS.

A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  
WHILE IT MAY BRIEFLY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAXIMUM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS ARE 
NOT LIKELY TO STAY AT THIS THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS 
ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH 8 FT AT ANY TIME.  THUS THIS EVENT IS 
NOT INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
     
GRIDDED WIND FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 
...12Z ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.  GRIDDED 
WAVE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH FROM 
GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.

$$ 
LANDSEA