000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC THU JUL 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N92W TO 17N93W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  THE WAVE IS 
SOMEWHAT DISTINGUISHABLE IN THE GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL 
TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.  NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 16N114W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM E OF AXIS N OF 12N.  
THE WAVE IS SHOWING UP DISTINCTLY IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY...THE GFS-BASED SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH 
DIAGNOSTICS...AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE 1656Z SCATTEROMETER 
DATA.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS OR OCEAN WAVES ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 07N78W TO 07N100W TO 11N125W. 
ITCZ IS LOCATED FROM 11N125W TO 13N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 109W.  
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 24N126W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 26N114W.  THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO 
THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS JUST WEST OF OUR WESTERN BORDER 
NEAR 12.7N 140.7W. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ALONG OUR WESTERN 
BORDER FROM 12N TO 17N.  THESE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD MOVE 
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW OUT OF OUR AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AT 
32N130W.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION NOR ANY HIGH WINDS OR SEAS.

A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  
WHILE IT MAY BRIEFLY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAXIMUM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS ARE 
NOT LIKELY TO STAY AT THIS THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS 
ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH 8 FT AT ANY TIME.  THUS THIS EVENT IS 
NOT INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
     
GRIDDED WIND FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 
...12Z ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.  GRIDDED 
WAVE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH FROM 
GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.

$$ 
LANDSEA