000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC THU JUL 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 15N100W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS.  THE WAVE IS 
SHOWING UP DISTINCTLY IN THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH 
DIAGNOSTICS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 17N110W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS S OF 
12N.THE WAVE IS SHOWING UP DISTINCTLY IN BOTH THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL 
TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 07N100W WITH A BREAK UNTIL 
RESUMING NEAR 10N197W TO 09N113W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N118W TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 90W TO 95W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ W OF 125W. 
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 24N124W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N111W.  THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO 
THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS JUST WEST OF OUR WESTERN BORDER NEAR 11N141W.  
THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS TO 8 FT.  THESE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD 
MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW OUT OF OUR AREA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS INDUCING A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW 
NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AT 32N127W.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM HAS 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY HIGH WINDS OR SEAS.

A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  
WHILE IT MAY BRIEFLY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAXIMUM DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WINDS ARE 
NOT LIKELY TO STAY AT THIS THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS 
ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH 8 FT AT ANY TIME.  THUS THIS EVENT IS 
NOT INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
     
GRIDDED WIND FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 18Z GFS 
...12Z ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.  GRIDDED 
WAVE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 18Z WAVEWATCH FROM 
GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.

$$ 
LANDSEA