000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC WED JUL 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N101W TO 14N100W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
AXIS.  THE WAVE IS SHOWING UP DISTINCTLY IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 
TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N114W TO 17N109W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS.  THE WAVE IS SHOWING UP DISTINCTLY IN BOTH THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL 
TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
09N120W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N133W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 
180 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 137W.
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 24N124W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N114W.  THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO 
THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS.

A 1009 MB LOW IS STRADDLING OUR WESTERN BORDER NEAR 11N140W.  
THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS TO 8 FT.  WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
FURTHER MONITORING OF THE SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS 
BEING HANDLED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS INDUCING A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW 
NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AT 31N127W.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM HAS 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY HIGH WINDS OR SEAS.

A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  
WHILE IT MAY BRIEFLY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAXIMUM...WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO STAY AT 
THIS THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS ARE NOT LIKELY TO 
REACH 8 FT AT ANY TIME.  THUS THIS EVENT IS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN 
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD LARGE SWELL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
     
$$ 
LANDSEA