000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161507 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N105W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N110W MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS NOT WELL DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE...CLOUD DRIFT WIND DATA INDICATED A SHARP CYCLONE AMPLITUDE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N115W...TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED NEAR 13N110W...ALONG THE WAVE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N94W 1001 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N110W 1010 MB TO 10N115W. THE ITCZ EXTEND FROM 10N115W TO 10N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N139W 1010 MB TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 88W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N127W...WITH A TROUGH REACHING SOUTH TO 25N130W. THE SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS PROVIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N140W TO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 19N115W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N120W TO BUILD AND EXTEND A RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N THROUGH FRI. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA STARTING FRI. FARTHER SOUTH...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N140W. CONVECTION WITH THE LOW IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA. ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS ARE REACHING 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...BETWEEN THE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N115W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N94W. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FRESH GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS IN TURN IS SUPPORTING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH. $$ CHRISTENSEN