000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160904
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC WED JUL 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 1010 MB REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ...NEAR 11N139W. CONVECTION WITH THE LOW IS WELL REMOVED 
SE OF THE CENTER AND MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ. WINDS N OF THE LOW 
ARE IN THE 20 KT RANGE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND 
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW 
CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK AT TWOEP AND WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N105W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 9N109W 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84WW TO LOW 8N93W TO 11N100W TO 9N116W. 
ITCZ FROM 9N116W TO 10N125W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N139W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 84W-88W AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 
100W AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 106W AND FROM 6N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 94N-100W.
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 27N139W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N114W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO 25N125W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 94W-106W.
 
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OTHERWISE A SURFACE 
HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W...WITH 
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS.
     
$$ 
DGS