000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC WED JUL 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 1009 MB REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ...NEAR 11N138W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE 
QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS N OF THE LOW 
ARE IN THE 20 KT RANGE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND 
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITHIN 12 TO 18 
HOURS. THIS LOW CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT TWOEP AND WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N104W TO 07N109W MOVING W AT 
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 11N105W TO 09N118W.  
ITCZ FROM 09N118W TO 10N130W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N138W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W 
AND 115W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 118W AND 140W. 
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 39N145W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 30N132W. A WEAK AREA OF 1014 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N125W WAS DISRUPTING THE RIDGE AND 
REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. AS SUCH ONLY 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN 
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 
137W. 

AN EARLIER 1556 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS STILL 
OCCURRING WELL AFTER THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ONE MORE PULSE OF 
WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 20 KT WED 
AFTERNOON. 
     
$$ 
COBB