000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS HELPED TO SPAWN A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER OF 1010 MB...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...NEAR 11N137W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO WITHIN 240 NM IN 
THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE IN THE 20 KT 
RANGE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 
270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW 
CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK AT TWOEP AND WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WHICH EARLIER EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
INTO THE AREA NEAR 16N98W HAS MERGED INTO A MORE SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE DESCRIBED BELOW.  

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N103W TO 07N108W MOVING W AT 
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W AND 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 
15N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 11N105W TO 09N118W.  
ITCZ FROM 09N118W TO 10N135W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N137W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 
86W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 
112W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 118W 
AND 135W. 
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N144W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 30N132W. A WEAK AREA OF 1015 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N125W WAS DISRUPTING THE RIDGE AND 
REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. AS SUCH ONLY 
MODERATE TRADES ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE 
ITCZ OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 137W. 

WINDS HAVE PULSED TO 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A 1556 UTC ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL AFTER THE TIME OF 
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ONE MORE PULSE 
OF WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 20 KT WED 
AFTERNOON. 
      
$$ 
COBB