000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS HELPED TO SPAWN A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER OF 1010 MB...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...NEAR 11N136W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE IN THE 20 KT RANGE. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 
WED MORNING. THIS LOW CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT TWOEP AND WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE AREA 
NEAR 16N98W TO 08N97W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N107W TO 07N107W MOVING W AT 
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 270 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N105W TO 08N117W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 11N133W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N136W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W 
AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 138W.
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N143W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N124W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ AS DISCUSSED ABOVE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. 

WINDS HAVE PULSED TO 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE 
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR 20 KT AND FALLING TO 10-15 KT DURING THE 
DAY.
      
$$ 
AL