000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 12N135W. THIS LOW HAS 
DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW TO 18N133W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 
132W-137W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS 
THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH 140W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANGE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE AREA 
NEAR 16N96W TO 11N97W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N102W TO 09N105W MOVING W AT AROUND 
15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E AND 60 NM 
W OF THE OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N133W TO THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE 
NEAR 12N135W. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N85W TO 6N112W TO 7N115W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 6N115W TO 9N120W TO 7N125W TO 1010 MB LOW 12N135W 
TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 109W-114W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 119W-127W AND 
WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 132W-137W.
     
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 29N143W TO 25N135W TO 15N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N127W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 23N125W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 12N135W. A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N114W.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY WED.
                
$$ 
DGS