000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150226
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 12N134W. THIS LOW HAS 
DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 15N132W TO 
09N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 12N TO 15N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. FRESH WINDS 
ARE OCCURRING W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE 
N. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE LOW AND TROPICAL 
WAVE APPROACH 140W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS A 
MEDIUM TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE AREA NEAR 16N96W TO 11N96W MOVING W AT 
AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N102W TO 08N105W MOVING W AT 
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 09N TO 14N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS 
WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N132W TO THE LOW MENTIONED 
ABOVE NEAR 12N134W TO 09N136W. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 06N107W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N107W TO 05N124W TO 09N134W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 89W AND 
94W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 121W AND ALSO 
BETWEEN 126W AND 131W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS 117W AND 
123W.
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                
                                               
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER DURING THE NEXT FEW 
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNING HOURS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS 
WHEN THEY WERE ENHANCED BY TROPICAL WAVES...BUT ARE STILL 
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG 
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N142W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 24N114W. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL 
LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT 
SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
                
$$ 
LEWITSKY