000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140235 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GULF OF HONDURAS S TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W JUST W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY OCCURRING OVER LAND ACROSS HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE GAP WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT... DISCUSSED MORE BELOW. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W TO 08N101W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS WHERE IT IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED FOR STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING...AND PREVIOUSLY THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHICH REACHED NEAR GALE FORCE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N132W TO 08N136W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHWARD PERTURBATION TO THE ITCZ. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 07N99W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N99W TO 10N133W THEN RESUMES FROM 10137W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 96W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 117W...FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... GAP WINDS... GULF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF GAP WIND FLOW INDUCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED WINDS RESULTED IN A MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT EARLY THIS PAST MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK TO NEAR GALE FORCE...30 KT...LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E OF THE AREA APPROACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY MON SO WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANOTHER GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADEWINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENT EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 7-8 FT FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W IN A MIX OF SOUTHERLY AND NE SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. $$ LEWITSKY