000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132122 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY OCCURRING OVER LAND ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS...THE MAJORITY OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE GAP WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...DISCUSSED MORE BELOW. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 16N97W TO 07N99W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS WHERE IT IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED FOR STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING...AND PREVIOUSLY THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHICH REACHED NEAR GALE FORCE FRI NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N133W TO 17N130W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THE WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHWARD PERTURBATION TO THE ITCZ. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N100W TO 11N131W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N134W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W... WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 102W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND FROM 07N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W...AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 7-8 FT THIS AFTERNOON FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W IN A MIX OF SOUTHERLY AND NE SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GAP WINDS... GULF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF GAP WIND FLOW INDUCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED WINDS RESULTED IN A MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN BY A 0406 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK TO NEAR GALE FORCE...30 KT....LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA APPROACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY MON SO WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANOTHER GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADEWINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENT EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. $$ LEWITSKY