000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC SAT JUL 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA 
S INTO THE PACIFIC TO 09N91W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THERE IS 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER IT 
IS HELPING TO BOOST GAP WIND EVENTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
DISCUSSED MORE BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N123W TO 19N122W MOVING W AT 
AROUND 20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED FOR A NORTHWARD PERTURBATION 
TO THE ITCZ. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS FOUND 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALONG THE 
ITCZ. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 08N94W TO 
06N108W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N108W TO 11N121W TO 10N130W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 06N138W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W 
AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A 
LINE FROM 06N103W TO 10N107W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N133W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AT 21N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING 
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WATERS W OF 110W. AN 
EXCEPTION IS ALONG AND JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N 
OF 26N WHERE ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH NW-
N WINDS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE DUE TO SURFACE 
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN WATERS DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AS A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS AHEAD 
OF THE WAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF THE WAVE AXIS BY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS HAS HELPED FOR A 
RELATIVELY RARE STRONG SUMMER TIME GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE 
FORCE OVER THESE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE NOW DIMINISHING 
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FURTHER 
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL HELP ENHANCE ANOTHER 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE 
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES EAST OF 
THIS AREA AND HELPS TO INDUCE THE NE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP. WINDS 
WILL START TO DIMINISH SUN AS THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE 
AREA BY MON AFTERNOON.
             
$$ 
LEWITSKY