000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SAT JUL 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE FORECAST 
WATERS EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA TO NEAR 09N89W...MOVING W AT 
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS HELPING FOR GAP WINDS 
INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC...DISCUSSED BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N120W TO 09N120W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. 
THIS WAVE HAS HELPED FOR A NORTHWARD PERTURBATION TO THE ITCZ. 
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM 
OF THE ITCZ.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N98W TO 07N109W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 11N122W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 
126W.  
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N130W EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP TO FRESHEN WINDS N OF THE ITCZ. THIS 
WILL HELP BUILD SEAS AND TO 8 FT FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 133W BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS AND 
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVE THROUGH MON.
                        
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN WATERS HAS HELPED FOR A 
RELATIVELY RARE STRONG SUMMER TIME GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE 
FORCE OVER THESE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL 
WAVE MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD FROM THE AREA...AND WINDS WILL FALL 
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROPICAL 
WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL MOVE INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL HELP PULSE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 25 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. 
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES EAST OF 
THIS AREA AND HELPS TO INDUCE THE NE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP. WINDS 
WILL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER 
THIS AREA BY MON NIGHT. 
             
$$ 
AL