000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120231 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE E PACIFIC JUST W OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING N OF 09N ALONG 87W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. LIMITED CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE HOWEVER IT IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N116W TO 17N115W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N100W TO 07N107W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N107W TO 11N117W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...AND WITHIN 30 NM N OF A LINE FROM 11N94W TO 09N99W TO 11N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N142W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S-SE TO 20N112W SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH WINDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS INCREASING TO 20 KT WHICH WILL SUPPORT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD 140W BY SUN EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE... ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH IS FROM 17N TO 21N ALONG 124W WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH FROM 09N124W TO 16N122W. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAINLY MODERATE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS WITH CONVECTION LIMITED N OF 15N. THE PRES GRADIENT OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL SUPPORT NW-N WINDS TO FRESH LEVELS ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...UP TO 30 KT LATER TONIGHT...THEN UP TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT. FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED DURING SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT WHILE FANNING OUT TO THE S-SW AND THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT. NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE 10M LEVEL. CURRENTLY A MINIMAL GALE EVENT IS NOT YET ANTICIPATED BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE WARNING IS NEEDED. $$ LEWITSKY