000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112119 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N112W TO 09N114W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 14N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 10N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N116W TO 04N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 07N87W TO 04N92W TO 08N97W TO 05N104W TO 10N113W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N138W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S-SE THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N110W S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS WITH WINDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS INCREASING TO 20 KT WHICH WILL SUPPORT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE MOVING W FROM 10N TO 20N ALONG ROUGHLY 124W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MAINLY MODERATE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS WITH CONVECTION LIMITED N OF 15N. FROM 10N TO 15N SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN DURING THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NW-N WINDS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST FRESH LEVELS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...UP TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN UP TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT. FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED DURING SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 1540 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT. CURRENTLY A MINIMAL GALE EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE WARNING IS NEEDED. $$ LEWITSKY