000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC FRI JUL 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N107W TO 09N108W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 
14N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE  WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS SOMEWHAT 
APPARENT WITHIN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N84W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 09N108W TO 06N122W TO 13N136W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS E OF 84W...WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 93W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 120W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 114W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W 
AND 98W.
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

1007 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR NEAR 17.5N119.5W. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND HAS BEEN RACING OFF TO THE W PULLING 
WELL AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW LOCATED GREATER THAN 120 
NM TO THE E OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. EVEN SO FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN 150 
NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... 
BECOMING A REMNANT TROUGH BY FRI. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE BY FRI MORNING.

A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 36N147W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE TO NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THIS IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS 
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO...EXTENDS FROM FROM 18N137W TO 
13N140W TO BEYOND 140W WHERE A PARENT SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 
13N W OF 138W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
AS SAMPLED BY AFTERNOON ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES 
ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN 
MIXED/MERGING NE AND SE SWELL COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W AND S OF 10N W OF 132W. THE TROUGH 
WILL SHIFT COMPLETELY W OF 140W LATER TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED 
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING BY 12-18 HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED N OF 
THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                            
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS WILL INDUCE 
ANOTHER GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 
EARLY FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE 
STRONGEST WINDS.

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND 
EVENT STARTING LATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30 KT 
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
                               
$$ 
LEWITSKY