000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 106W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT SECTION BELOW. THE WAVE IS 
SOMEWHAT APPARENT WITHIN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACCOMPANYING 1007 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 17.5N118W HAS BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER 
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NE AND E QUADRANTS OF THE LOW 
AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 
180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH MORE HOSTILE 
ENVIRONMENT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N88W TO  
07N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N98W TO 09N106W TO 06N123W 
TO 12N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 86W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 89W AND 
95W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W...WITHIN 120 NM NW 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 42N140W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE TO NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THIS IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS 
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N136W TO LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF 
FAUSTO...NEAR 11.5N140W 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RECENT 
ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 19N WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. ALSO A 
SURROUNDING AREA OF MIXED/MERGING NE/SE SWELL COVERS THE WATERS 
ROUGHLY S OF 16N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE W OF 
140W TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND 
SUBSIDING BY 24 HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED N OF 
THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                            
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS ARE YET AGAIN 
INDUCING A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TODAY. A 1600 UTC 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND    
SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-11 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH 
TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH SAT.

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND 
EVENT STARTING LATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30 KT 
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
                               
$$ 
LEWITSKY