000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101532 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 113W. THE WAVE IS SOMEWHAT APPARENT WITHIN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N117W TO 21N115W WITH A 1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM IN NE SEMICIRCLE. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY... THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM RECENTLY. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 08N93W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 09N106W TO 08N125W...WHERE IT HAS BROKEN FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO...THEN CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 10N136W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W TO 99W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 46N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS ARE INDUCING A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TODAY. SHIP OZHS2 REPORTED NEAR GALE NE WINDS ALONG WITH 16 FT SEAS WITHIN THE GULF AT 06Z THIS MORNING. FORCING FOR THE EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WEAKEN SOME AS WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 12 FT LATE TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE USUAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE EVENT SHOULD END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND EVENT STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE MODERATE WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 25-30 KT SATURDAY MORNING. THE EVENT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW OUR 25 KT THRESHOLD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. $$ LANDSEA