000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 103W-104W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS INDUCED AN UNDULATION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THAT VCNTY...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY AT 15- 20 KT AND REACH ALONG 123W WITHIN 48 HOURS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE GRADUALLY MERGED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND BECOME CAPTURED WITHIN A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12.5N118.5W TO LOW PRES NEAR 17.5N116W TO 20N115W...AND IS DRIFTING WWD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E OF TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT LATER TONIGHT AND REACH ALONG 130W BY 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 10N84.5W TO 07N92W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08.5N103W TO 06N115W TO 12N132W...WHERE IT HAS SEVERED FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THIS MORNING...AND WERE DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07.5N139W TO 15N131W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 09N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 136W AND 141W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRINGWITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. THE ASCAT PASSES ALSO SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OCCURRING NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 18N...BEING AIDED BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS AND BROAD RIDGING TO THE N. RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS WITH A LINGERING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY 48 HOURS. THE BROAD RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 45N139W THAT EXTENDS SE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGING IS FORCING A ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS PREVAILING S OF 20N AND W OF 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS PERSIST ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ARE DISRUPTING THE RIDGE BUILDING MORE STRONGLY INTO THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH N OF 24N AND ALONG ABOUT 126W REMAINS OF DOUGLAS...AND FINALLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS INDUCED A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT YESTERDAY. AFTER A BRIEF EARLY EVENING LULL...A PULSE OF STRONG NE WINDS HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE GULF AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 89W THIS MORNING...WITH AN EARLIER 0326 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS 20-25 KT. THIS NOCTURNAL PULSING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH DOWNSTREAM SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT AS FAR W AS 98W. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SPILL OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS TO AROUND 20 KT...AND REACH TO 25 KT FRI AND SAT NIGHTS...WITH RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT EACH EARLY MORNING. $$ STRIPLING