000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 102W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. THE WAVE IS APPARENT WITHIN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 17N116W TO 12N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 07N110W TO 12N130W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH NOW EXTEND FROM 16N130W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS AND BROAD RIDGING TO THE N...WITH AN AREA OF FRESH SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHT. RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS WITH A LINGERING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY 48 HOURS. THE BROAD RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS FROM 1031 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 47N138W SE TO NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGING IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DISRUPTING THE BROAD RIDGING IS THE STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS WHICH HAVE FINALLY DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N126W TO 24N127W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS INDUCED A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT EARLIER TODAY...THOUGH NO DIRECT OBSERVATIONS WERE AVAILABLE. A BRIEF LULL IS LIKELY OCCURRING NOW WITH WINDS PULSING BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. FORCING OF THIS EVENT SHOULD RELAX BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. $$ LEWITSKY