000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC WED JUL 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 100W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS 
POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. THE WAVE IS APPARENT WITHIN THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W HAS MERGED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE NEARBY TO THE W. THAT TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 
20N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W TO 12N116W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE 
IS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 20N WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N88W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 11N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N132W TO 
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 
84W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN 1802 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED THE REMNANTS OF 
FAUSTO IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 14N129W TO 
08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED FRESH 
TO STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS WITH A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS AND BROAD RIDGING TO THE N...WITH 
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ WHERE THE PRES 
GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHT. RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING 
THE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS 
WITH A LINGERING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS REACHING TO 136W BY 48 
HOURS.

THE BROAD RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS FROM 1032 MB HIGH  
PRES NEAR 47N141W SE TO NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS 
RIDGING IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE 
ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS 
PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISRUPTING THE BROAD RIDGING IS THE STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT 1016 
MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOUGLAS WHICH CONTINUES TO SPIN   
NEAR 26N126W AND IS DRIFTING SW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED 
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

GAP WINDS...                                            
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS INDUCED A GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TODAY...THOUGH NO DIRECT OBSERVATIONS 
WERE AVAILABLE. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS PULSING BACK TO FRESH 
TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. RESULTANT SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. FORCING OF THIS 
EVENT SHOULD RELAX BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE MORNING HI-RES ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS SHOWED A STRIP OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH 
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
STRONGER NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY  
WINDS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.
                               
$$ 
LEWITSKY